What to know about Hurricane Milton as it churns toward Florida’s Gulf Coast

As powerful Hurricane Milton charged through the Gulf of Mexico toward Florida on Wednesday, officials reiterated calls for residents to evacuate — noting that time is running out and the odds of survival are bleak for holdouts determined to stay.
Milton was at Category 4 status on Wednesday morning after spending much of Tuesday as a Category 5 storm. It is threatening the Tampa Bay area, a major population centre that is home to more than 3.3 million people and has managed to evade a direct hit from a major hurricane for over 100 years. With rain falling in parts of the state and winds expected to increase, Milton is menacing communities battered when deadly Hurricane Helene came ashore just two weeks ago, swamping the coastline.
Millions have been ordered to evacuate and in the Tampa Bay area, counties are using multiple means of communication to urge people to leave vulnerable areas. By early Wednesday, the normally busy interstate leading into downtown Tampa was mostly free of vehicles and few cars moved on side streets.
National Hurricane Center forecasters warned Milton is “expected to remain an extremely dangerous major hurricane” when it reaches Florida’s coast.
Milton is expected to make landfall on Florida’s Gulf Coast late Wednesday.
“We are bracing and prepared to receive a major hit,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a Wednesday briefing.
As of Wednesday morning, the storm was about 190 miles (305 kilometres) southwest of Tampa with sustained winds of 145 mph (230 km/h).
The storm is expected to retain hurricane strength as it crosses central Florida on Thursday toward the Atlantic Ocean.
U.S. President Joe Biden, who postponed an overseas trip so he could remain at the White House to monitor Milton, warned it “could be one of the worst storms in 100 years to hit Florida.”
Milton is just the latest system in a storm season scientists say is the weirdest they’ve ever seen.
Forecasters were predicting a busy Atlantic hurricane season before it started, and it began when Beryl became the earliest storm on record to reach Category 5 status. But from Aug. 20 — the traditional start of peak hurricane season — to Sept. 23 it was record quiet, said Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.
Then, five hurricanes popped up between Sept. 26 and Oct. 6 — more than double the old record of two. On Sunday and Monday, there were three hurricanes in October at the same time, which had never happened before, Klotzbach said. In just 46 1/2 hours, Hurricane Milton went from forming as a tropical storm with 40 mph winds to a top-of-the-charts Category 5 hurricane.
With hurricanes disrupting the lives of millions in the U.S., some might wonder if it’s possible to control extreme weather events. But scientists say hurricanes are far too powerful for that, and climate change is providing more fuel than ever for storms like Helene and Milton.
Duke Energy project manager Tiger Yates, bottom centre, walks among the hundreds of lineman trucks staged, Tuesday, Oct. 8, 2024. at The Villages, Fla. in preparation for Hurricane Milton. (Stephen M. Dowell/Orlando Sentinel via AP)
Florida’s Gulf Coast is especially vulnerable to storm surge.
Helene came ashore about 150 miles (240 kilometres) north of Tampa in the Florida Panhandle and still managed to cause drowning deaths in the Tampa area due to surges that were about five to eight feet (1.5 to 2.5 metres) above normal tide levels.
With Milton, forecasters warn of a possible eight- to 12-foot (two- to 3.5-metre) storm surge in Tampa Bay.
The county that’s home to Tampa ordered areas adjacent to the bay and all mobile and manufactured homes to be evacuated by Tuesday night. With a predicted storm surge that could swallow a single-story house, Tampa Mayor Jane Castor issued increasingly dire warnings Tuesday to those planning to ride out the storm: “So if you’re in it, basically that’s the coffin that you’re in.”
Milton is forecast to cross central Florida and dump as much as 18 inches (46 centimetres) of rain while heading toward the Atlantic Ocean, according to the hurricane centre.
Tampa International Airport halted flights Tuesday morning, posting on X that it is not a shelter for people or their cars. Nearby St. Pete-Clearwater International Airport said it was in a mandatory evacuation zone and closed after the last flight left Tuesday. It said all flights were canceled Wednesday and Thursday.
The tourism machine in Orlando, about 84 miles (135 kilometres) inland from Tampa, started grinding to a halt Tuesday. Orlando International Airport — the nation’s seventh busiest and Florida’s most trafficked — said it would cease operations Wednesday morning. And at least three major theme parks — Walt Disney World, Universal Orlando and SeaWorld — will close, with the latter two also remaining closed on Thursday and Disney likely to follow suit.
For some residents of storm-prone Southeastern states, the best indicator of a hurricane’s severity can be found at the local Waffle House.
If the Georgia-based restaurant chain stays open in town, neighbors are reassured that the coming storm is unlikely to cause devastation, while a closed location of the dependable diner chain has come to indicate impending disaster.
What might sound like silly logic has become one of the most reliable ways for Southerners and even federal officials to gauge a storm’s severity and identify communities most in need of immediate aid. The Waffle House Index was created over a decade ago by a federal emergency management official and is still used today.
As Milton barrels toward Florida communities still recovering from Helene, many Waffle House locations along the Gulf Coast — including those in Tampa, Cape Coral and St. Petersburg — have closed in preparation, indicating the damage will likely be severe.